Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) Chilean inflation rose in August and, with the central bank continuing to talk down the possibility of further policy easing, we expect the benchmark interest rate to be left unchanged at 2.50% at... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Full-time staff shortages point to faster wage growth Part-time wages have been rising at a reasonable rate for a while but, with evidence now building the firms are finding it harder to hire sufficient full-time workers, a pick-up in broader wage growth... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation rose to an 18-year high in August, but the latest increase was driven by another jump in food inflation, rather than a rise in broader price pressures. As such, it is unlikely to... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank nearing end of easing cycle The Brazilian central bank cut its benchmark Selic interest rate by 100bp, to 8.25%, last night and confirmed our view that the end of the easing cycle is not far off. As things stand, our forecast is... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient despite geopolitical tensions The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has caused the Vix “fear gauge” to reach its highest level this year, but it remains a long way below the levels it reached during many... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC remains dovish, but tightening likely next year The tone of the press statement and conference that followed today’s MPC meeting in Poland remained dovish. However, there is a hawkish minority on the Council and, as core inflation picks up in the... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a fresh eighteen-year low in August clears the way for another 100bp cut in the benchmark Selic interest rate, to 8.25%, later today. That said, we suspect the... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Russia’s Otkritie bailout The breathless commentary surrounding the recent bailout of Otkritie by Russia’s central bank appears to have missed some of the more salient points about Russia’s banking sector. As we explain in... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The fall in labour cash earnings in July was entirely due to a slump in bonus payments, whereas regular pay is holding up. Nonetheless, there is still a long way to go to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2%... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) Russian inflation fell to a post-communist low of 3.3% y/y in August and we expect the headline rate to remain below the central bank’s 4% target over our forecast horizon. We had thought the Bank... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to rise again Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in August, due in large part to a sharp jump in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to hit seven-month high in August Consumer price inflation probably rose last month to the highest since January, driven by a further rebound in food price inflation. But taking a step back, inflation is still fairly subdued and we... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & Consumer Prices (Aug.) Switzerland’s Q2 GDP release confirmed that the economy expanded only very slowly in the first half of the year. While survey indicators suggest that growth will pick up, subdued inflation will keep... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month to 10.7% y/y means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of the year are looking less likely. That said, we still expect the headline... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
