Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by Q3. The consensus... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian consumer prices last month, of 2.9% y/y, unchanged from December, reinforces our view that the rise in inflation over the course of this year will be... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The further sharp decline in Egyptian inflation in January, to 17.1% y/y, paves the way for the central bank to embark on an easing cycle at its monetary policy meeting next week. And further ahead... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.2% y/y last month, coming alongside weakness in the latest hard activity data and dovish comments from central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, means we now... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB unlikely to let franc’s rise be sustained The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The slowdown in wage growth in December was driven by bonus payments and overtime pay whereas regular pay rebounded. The big picture is that wage growth remains sluggish. 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise The usual pattern around Chinese New Year is for inflation to rise sharply either in January or February and fall in the other month. This year, we think inflation will have picked up in both. And... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy loses some pace at the start of 2018 The survey evidence released so far paints a pretty downbeat picture for growth at the start of the year. Indeed, falls in the manufacturing, construction and services sector PMI left the all-sector... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Turkish inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 10.3% y/y last month, from 11.9% y/y in December, and is likely to edge down further over the rest of this year. Even so, with the headline rate likely... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which was above the consensus estimate but in line with our own forecast, leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise rates in March. And with signs that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slicing and dicing inflation Whichever way you look at it, there is very little evidence that the health of the economy is starting to boost inflation in Australia. Out of our six key charts that take a deep dive into the latest... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could strike more hawkish tone With the data continuing to surprise the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the upside and the Governor sounding encouraged by progress in Brexit negotiations and a bit more upbeat on the outlook... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation largely reflected energy effects, so won’t be a major concern to the ECB. But December’s labour market data emphasise that there is still slack in the labour... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in fairly good spirits. And with real earnings likely to recover in the second half of this year, there is scope for... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
