Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) The Tankan’s all industry index fell at a slower pace in the second quarter than in the first, which suggests that the economy may be past the worst. That said, the slowdown has started to ease... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) While headline HICP inflation came in unchanged in June, at 1.2%, the extent of the increase in services and core inflation was a bit of a surprise. But the increase in core inflation seems to have... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly G20 truce, armyworm epidemic Trump and Xi will meet tomorrow and may agree to hold off imposing new tariffs for the time being. While this would be a positive outcome for China’s economy and markets in the short-run, any gains... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will probably cut rates to 1.0% The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November... 26th June 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Acharya resignation another blow to RBI credibility The surprise resignation of RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya – one of the most hawkish members of the MPC – boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it should once again raise... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The slowdown in May’s inflation was largely broad-based, and we expect it to turn negative by the end of the year. However, the Bank of Japan won’t be overly concerned as this will be mostly driven by... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks shifting to the downside Price pressures have weakened further against a backdrop of worsening prospects for the global economy. The recent fall in the oil price implies that energy effects will drag on headline inflation in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will wait and see GDP growth in Q1 was stronger than the RBNZ had forecast and the Bank will have been encouraged by the government’s stimulatory Budget. As such, the RBNZ is likely to take a ‘wait and see’ approach... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The upside surprises in core and headline inflation in May reduce the chance of the Bank cutting interest rates in the next few months. But we expect core inflation to drift back down in the second... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2019) CPI inflation is likely to bob about the 2% mark for the next couple of months, but there are still reasons to think that it will drift up again towards the end of the year. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of central bank’s target range in May, providing the space for policymakers to support the economy by cutting their key interest rate next month. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Easing Saudi deflation in May suggests that the recent pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector is feeding through into price pressures. In addition, a fresh round of subsidy cuts is looking... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) Nigerian inflation remained, at 11.4% y/y, above the central bank’s target range in May, but policymakers will probably still cut their key interest rate in July. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What do oil price moves mean for core inflation? Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
