Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to raise interest rates The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, and instead left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. With headwinds to the economy mounting and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch No scope for further loosening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations of a rate hold in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming policy meeting on 4th October. Further ahead, some are still expecting... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts are still on the way Nigerian policymakers kept rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement made it clear that easing is on the way. We expect that the first cut will come in Q1 2018. 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household debt to weigh on economic growth Although the economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth was still overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when interest rates... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation picks up from eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation rebounded in August, having fallen to an eight-year low in July. But while we expect fuel and food inflation to edge up over the coming months, easing core price pressures... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that industrial activity continued to rise at a strong pace in the third quarter. However, the survey suggests that price pressures remain... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates again before year-end Given the economy’s poor growth prospects and the subdued outlook for inflation, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. However, as the central bank... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Data to the middle of September showed that Mexican inflation fell for the first time in almost eighteen months, suggesting that the headline rate may now have peaked. We expect inflation to fall... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) Although the headline inflation rate rose to a moderate 1.4% in August, from 1.2%, the further increases in core inflation are broadly consistent with the reduced slack in the economy. This suggests... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery looking unbalanced Recently-released GDP data confirmed that Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, with economy growing at its fastest pace in two years. However, the drivers of growth are looking unbalanced. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand to resist pressure to cut interest rates The government is putting pressure on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates in order to weaken the baht, which has been the best performing currency in Asia so far this year. The central... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A solid first year from Governor Lowe Philip Lowe has notched up an impressive scorecard in his first year as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but greater challenges lie ahead. There are reasons to believe that economic growth... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African loosening cycle put on hold The South African Reserve Bank has paused its loosening cycle, but we expect that it will cut rates at its November meeting, by which time inflation will have eased further. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The slight increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in August, is the first real sign that the headline rate may have now bottomed out, and reinforces... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
