Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Norway continued on its downward trend in July, and it is likely to fall a little further over the rest of the year. We think that it will remain well below target over the next few years... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to markets: Forget about rate hikes Graeme Wheeler didn’t go out with a bang at his last policy meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as interest rates were left at 1.75% for the ninth month in a row. But he stressed... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexican inflation nudged up to a fresh eight-year high in July, but this is unlikely to be enough to change the central bank’s view that its tightening cycle is over. As such, we continue to expect... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation fell to a fresh decade-low in July but is now close to bottoming out. As such, while it’s a close call, our base case remains that Copom will cut interest rates by 75bps (rather... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected Czech inflation data support our view that the National Bank’s monetary tightening cycle will be more aggressive than the markets are pricing in. While our central view... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Rising steel prices aside, broader price pressures appear to have cooled last month. We expect the reflation of the past year to continue to fizzle out in coming quarters as policy tightening dampens... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Chilean inflation remained below the central bank’s target range in July and the data provided further evidence that underlying price pressure are subdued. Against this backdrop, we continue to expect... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in food inflation comes to an end We think that consumer price inflation in India held steady in July, as the recent sharp drop in food inflation appears to have come to an end. Further ahead, we agree with the RBI’s view that... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to ease further Consumer prices appear to have risen at their fastest pace last month since February, driven by a rebound in food inflation. Even so, consumer price inflation remains muted and is unlikely to pick-up... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jul.) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be disappointed that July’s small rise in core inflation was driven by imported rather than domestically-produced products. As inflation expectations are consistent... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A new phase The Australian economy is entering a new phase where the drag on GDP growth from mining investment is coming to an end, but the boosts to growth from dwellings investment and consumption are starting... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown Despite softening home sales, the incoming data point to solid GDP growth in the second quarter, possibly outpacing the 3.7% q/q annualised rate posted in the first quarter. Needless to say, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Russian inflation last month means that the central bank, having paused its easing cycle last week, looks set to cut interest rates at next month’s Board meeting. 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hoping to hit its inflation target sooner The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecasts infer that it doesn’t think a dollar of US$0.80 will knock the economy off course. In fact, its new forecast that underlying inflation will rise to the 2... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
