Asia Economics Update Rates to stay on hold in Taiwan With economic growth fairly strong and inflationary pressures subdued, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%. The dovish tone of the Bank’s accompanying... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BSP unlikely to change policy stance soon Despite the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the Philippines central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. There was nothing in its statement to suggest BSP is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - New Governor, new government (?), same dovish story While Grant Spencer will almost certainly decide to keep interest rates on hold at 1.75% at his first meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Thursday 28 th September, the... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa was weaker than expected in August, which supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% at its meeting tomorrow. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation remained in negative territory in August but with the government gearing up for a fresh round of subsidy cuts as well as the introduction of a new value-added tax, inflation is likely... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC underestimating inflation risks The decision by the Hungarian MPC to ease monetary conditions further today looks like a policy misstep. Mounting capacity constraints and rapid wage growth mean that we think inflation will turn out... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation showing signs of resurgence The V-shaped rebound in the three-month annualised rate confirms the slump in core CPI inflation that began in the spring was mostly due to transitory factors, which are now fading. The annual core... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the overheating risk in Hungary? There are no clear signs yet that Hungary’s economy is overheating but, by the same token, growing signs that the economy is hitting capacity constraints sit uncomfortably with the MPC’s continued... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts interest rates, but political turmoil set to rattle markets Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by 25bp last night, to 3.50%, and confirmed our view that rates are unlikely to fall further. What’s more, the surprise decision by Congress to dismiss... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigerian inflation remained high in August, but we expect that it will ease over the coming months, prompting policymakers to cut interest rates. 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the surge in full-time jobs mean for wages? While the acceleration in full-time jobs growth in Australia since the start of the year is clearly a positive development for income and consumption growth, the impact on wage growth and inflation is... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s report confirms that the earlier decline in core CPI inflation was largely due to idiosyncratic factors that are now fading or going into reverse. We still don’t expect the Fed to hike... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC takes hawkish line after inflation surprise Last month’s jump in inflation prompted the Turkish MPC to adopt a more hawkish line in the statement accompanying today’s meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged. Even so, with inflation... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
