Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) While Swedish inflation surprised on the upside in May, we expect it to fall back as economic growth slows over the coming months. As a result, we are sticking to our dovish view that the Riksbank... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but, even so, the drop in the headline rate in May will be used by the MPC as further justification of its... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The subdued 0.1% gain in core consumer prices in May extends a run of weaker gains, underlining the lack of significant inflationary pressures a decade into this expansion. Subdued growth in unit... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) While India's headline inflation edged up in May and is likely to rise further, a sizeable fall in core inflation will be seen by policymakers at the RBI as vindication of their view that there is... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Headline inflation was once again boosted by a sharp rise in pork prices in May. But with core inflation declining to a three-year low, it is clear that demand-side pressures on prices remain muted. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected inflation data for May from Norway are unlikely to prevent the Norges Bank from hiking interest rates again at its policy meeting next week. But they increase the chance that... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: underlying price pressures are contained The rise in Russian inflation in late-2018 and early-2019 was driven largely by higher food prices and a VAT hike. To overcome these distortions, we’ve created a measure of ‘underlying’ inflation... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile CPI (May) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in May, is set to be followed by further declines, taking it below the central bank’s target. So long as the economy recovers from its recent weak patch... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The further fall in Russian inflation to 5.1% y/y last month probably seals the deal on an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting. We expect a 25bp cut to 7.50%. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (May) The unexpected uptick in inflation in May mainly reflected temporary factors and is unlikely to preclude further rate cuts from the central bank. We are sticking with our forecast for two more cuts in... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The drop in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in May was largely due to lower energy inflation and a reversal of Easter timing effects. But with wage growth likely to have peaked, we expect core... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (May) The morning’s release of inflation and PMI data from Switzerland for May showed that price pressures remain almost entirely absent and that the industrial sector remains in the shadow of the euro-zone... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figures for May, combined with the recent rally in the lira, means that the MPC will continue to shift away from its hawkish stance at this month’s policy... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
