Global Inflation Watch Only tentative signs of higher inflation We expect the inflation rate in the G7 economies to average less than 2% this year and next. This is partly because average earnings growth has remained weaker than might have been expected given the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Feb.) With Swedish inflation unchanged at a joint 10-month low in February, we see the Riksbank changing its forward guidance next month to signal that it will raise interest rates later than it previously... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Slower inflation and a political breakthrough have opened the way to interest rate cuts in Nigeria. We expect that policymakers will lower their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in Q2. 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in February. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose accelerated month. With reasons to... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Expansion has become shakier Revised GDP figures confirmed that the economic recovery continued apace in Q4. However, the more recent monthly activity data suggest that the longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m in February, extending the run of firmer monthly gains and pushing the three-month annualised core inflation rate up to a decade high of 3.1%... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) The drop in consumer price inflation in February was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remains high and could well rise further. As such, we remain comfortable with our... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Brazil came in as expected in February, but its failure to pick up over the past couple of months gives Copom the green light to lower interest rates again later this month. We now expect... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength another stumbling block for BoJ The yen would have to strengthen much further before it turns into a major drag on export competitiveness and corporate profits. However, the recent appreciation should bring the pick-up in goods... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose sharply last month after a fall in January, boosted by a New Year-driven rebound in food price inflation. We think a further rise in food inflation will keep the headline... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further drop in Mexican inflation in February was encouraging, and the breakdown contains signs of broad disinflation pressures – core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further sharp fall in Egyptian inflation last month, to 14.4% y/y, should be enough to persuade the central bank to cut interest rates by a further 100bp at its monetary policy meeting this month... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in headline inflation to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a drop in food and fuel inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German core inflation to rise only gradually With clear signs that inflationary pressures are growing in Germany, core inflation looks set to rise. But as this will be gradual and price pressures elsewhere are subdued, it will be of little... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation figures for February confirmed that underlying price pressures remain weak and another cut in the central bank’s policy interest rate at the next Board meeting later this month is... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
