Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 2.3% y/y in February leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle this month. Although market expectations for easing have been pared... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February, in large part due to a moderation in food inflation. This should further embolden the RBI to follow its global peers... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further increase in Turkish inflation in February probably won’t be enough to deter the central bank from easing monetary policy a little more in the next couple of months. But policymakers have... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) Stronger headline inflation in early February was mostly due to food prices; core inflation remained stable. Even so, we think that the persistence of above-target inflation will limit policymakers to... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trump trip, the “tunnel of testing trade-offs” Progress on trade negotiations will be high on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to India next week. But we have low expectations for any major breakthrough given the protectionist turn taken... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) The renewed drop in the manufacturing PMI coupled with a slump in the services PMI suggests that the coronavirus has started to take a toll on Japan’s economy. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline inflation edged down in January and we expect it to moderate further this year as capacity shortages diminish. A contraction in GDP this year should lead to easing price pressures, offsetting... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2020) The modest fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of the month, to 4.2% y/y, confirmed that it has passed its peak. The headline rate is likely to edge down further over the course of the year... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following the rise to 2.4% in January, a sharp decline in energy inflation will pull headline inflation back down to around 1.5% by April. Core inflation is also likely to decline, but not by as much. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation for the first time in six months in January was in line with the Bank of England’s expectations, so this is unlikely to move the dial on the outlook for interest rates. 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this year, we... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation jumped to the 4.5% y/y midpoint of policymakers’ target range in January, which strengthens our view that the current easing cycle will end after just one more cut. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
