Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi inflation rose for a twelfth consecutive month in January and, while we expect a fresh slowdown in the non-oil sector to keep a lid on underlying price pressures, further hikes to local fuel... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jan. 2020) The further rise in Nigerian inflation in January, to 12.1% y/y, suggests that border closures have continued to drive up food prices. This will limit the central bank’s scope to lower interest rates... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the pick-up in core WPI inflation supports our view that the room for further monetary easing has diminished. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued stability of core CPI inflation in January supports our view that the Fed will not be raising interest rates again for the foreseeable future. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Inflation rose faster than most expected in January due to a jump in core inflation. With an economic recovery around the corner, underlying price pressures should strengthen further over the coming... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway, Switz. & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the continued absence of price... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) The modest rise in Egyptian inflation in January leaves it below the mid-point of the central bank’s target range and, after pausing for breath at the last MPC meeting, we think that policymakers will... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Seasonal volatility and coronavirus disruptions pushed up consumer prices in January. But the PBOC is likely to look through this temporary rise in inflation when setting policy. 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation from 2.8% y/y in December to 3.2% y/y in January supports our view that, while the central bank will cut interest rates further, the easing cycle won’t go as far as... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in January, in large part due to a continued increase in food inflation. Further ahead, food inflation is likely to ease, but we expect... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Russian inflation to just 2.4% y/y in January primarily reflected the unwinding impact of last year’s VAT hike. But it will probably be enough to prompt the central... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank willing to accept below-target inflation The Bank of Canada has implied that it would be willing to accept below-target inflation during periods when financial vulnerabilities are elevated. Accelerating house price inflation means financial... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in Turkish inflation in January is unlikely to sway the central bank (CBRT) away from another interest rate cut this month as policymakers cave into pressure from President Erdogan. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German HICP (Jan.) The increase in Germany’s headline HICP inflation rate to 1.6% in January was a little smaller than most had expected and was driven by higher energy inflation. Underlying inflation seems to have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
