Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Consumer Prices (Q1)

Inflation was accelerating ahead of the virus outbreak but the surge in spare capacity should push underlying inflation below 1% over the coming quarters.

29th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2020)

The decline in Brazilian inflation to 2.9% y/y in the first half of April suggests that Copom will be able to lower the Selic rate by an additional 50bp (to 3.25%) next week. The political crisis and...

28th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Japan Data Response

Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Headline inflation was unchanged in March, but we suspect this may be the last positive reading for a while yet. Corona containment and the prior plunge in oil prices should translate into inflation...

24th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.)

The collapse in Mexican inflation to just 2.1% y/y in the first half of April will give Banxico more space to support the economy. It looks increasingly likely that the central bank will follow up...

23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read

Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The 1.3%-point slump in inflation in March was mainly due to lower energy prices and, with gasoline inflation falling even further this month, we expect headline inflation to drop below zero in April.

22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Mar.)

The larger-than-expected fall in South African inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in March will give the central bank more room for manoeuvre. Although yesterday’s announcement of a fiscal package by the...

22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read

UK Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)

In March CPI inflation took the first leg of what we suspect will be a sustained journey down to around 0.5% by the summer, easing from 1.7% in February to 1.5%.

22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

Shadow banking woes deepen

Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to...

22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020)

The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus.

21st April 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Output to fall the most since Great Depression

The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming...

20th April 2020 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1)

The rise in headline inflation from 1.9% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4 will be of cold comfort to the RBNZ given the virus outbreak may cause inflation to slow below 1% before long.

20th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge

A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have...

17th April 2020 · 11 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices & Reg. Unemp. (Mar.)

While the decline in headline inflation in Sweden in March owed much to lower energy prices, persistently below-target core price pressures and the virus-related economic slump opens the door to...

15th April 2020 · 2 mins read

India Data Response

Wholesale Prices (Mar.)

Although not the preferred measure for policymakers, the drop in the headline WPI rate in March reinforces our view that inflation is no concern at this stage. Instead, the priority now is for the...

15th April 2020 · 2 mins read

India Data Response

Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Headline CPI inflation dropped to a four-month low in March and timely indicators suggest a further easing in price pressures so far in April. With inflation no concern, the priority for policymakers...

13th April 2020 · 2 mins read