Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2020) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation, to 3.3% y/y last month, adds to reasons to think that Copom will cut the policy rate by another 50bp (to 3.25%) when it meets in early May. 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The slight fall in Egyptian inflation in March to 5.1% y/y leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target range which, coupled with the economic hit from the draconian measures to... 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Collapse in demand and oil prices to anchor inflation Given the concerns about public health and the impact of the national lockdown, the current rate of inflation should not constrain the actions of policymakers. Further ahead though, the likelihood... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) While core inflation in Norway remained slightly above policymakers’ target in March, the precipitous plunge in economic activity raises the chance that Norway will join the sub-zero interest rate... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Output to fall more than during global financial crisis Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay... 8th April 2020 · 19 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in March, to 3.3% y/y, should ease near-term concerns at the central bank about the impact of the fall in the peso on prices. More importantly, with... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation to 2.5% y/y in March probably marks the start of a gradual pick-up over the next few months as the effects of the weaker ruble feed through to consumer prices. But with... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The drop in Turkish inflation in March, coupled with the sharp downturn in the economy, means that the central bank is likely to follow up last month’s emergency 100bp interest rate cut with further... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Mar.) Having fallen further into negative territory in March, Swiss inflation is likely to remain below zero for the rest of 2020. This will strengthen policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update How far will inflation fall? Inflation will fall sharply across the region over the coming months as the effect of currency falls and supply-side disruptions are outweighed by the impact of falling oil prices and a slump in... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Coronavirus crisis to drag inflation down While the coronavirus crisis will have both upward and downward effects on prices, we expect the net impact to be significantly disinflationary, for the advanced economies at least, over the next year... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Ger. Unemp. (Mar.) The inflation rate in the euro-zone took a leg down in March, largely due to the slump in oil prices. With the economy taking on the verge of an unprecedented nose-dive, we expect headline inflation... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation heading close to zero The collapse in economic activity, spike in unemployment and slump in oil prices look set to push inflation down from 1.7% now to around 0.5%, with the risk that inflation falls to, or below zero... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation set to turn negative The precipitous fall in oil prices and virus-related plunge in demand is likely to push euro-zone inflation to a record low of -1% in the summer. While the risk of deflation becoming entrenched seems... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
