China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2020) The further fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of March will allow the central bank to lower the Selic rate by a further 50bp in the near term. But the scope for aggressive easing is limited. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The drop in CPI inflation from 1.8% in January to 1.7% in February is a small sign of things to come – we expect the effects of the coronavirus crisis to drag inflation below 1.0% in the months ahead. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation fell in February, and we expect it to moderate sharply this year as capacity shortages evaporate and the coronavirus opens up slack in the economy. By far the deepest downturn since 2009... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slump in oil prices will cause headline inflation to plummet to below 1% in the second quarter, from 2.2% in February. While weaker activity will put downward pressure on core inflation in the... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Worsening outbreak will prompt SARB to cut Activity data from January suggest that the economy was already contracting before the coronavirus reached South Africa. The outbreak will add to economic headwinds. Policymakers are likely to spring... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Coronavirus derailing the economy Surveys and timely data from late-February onwards show that the economy is in the midst of a deep downturn. Cinema sales, restaurant reservations and the Economy Watchers Survey all point towards... 18th March 2020 · 10 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in February is an added source of comfort for the RBI following the fall in CPI inflation last month. We think it will follow its global peers by further... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2020) The modest decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.0% y/y, probably gives Copom leeway to lower the Selic rate by 25bp when it meets next week, despite the fall in the real. 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the risk of deflation back? While the drop in oil prices will push inflation down in the near term, the bigger disinflationary risk could stem from the effect of the coronavirus on economic activity. Indeed, we said after the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in February to 5.3% y/y puts it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range. Coupled with mounting fears over the coronavirus outbreak, this... 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The coronavirus outbreak is putting downward pressure on inflation. While supply chain disruptions have kept food prices high, weaker demand has weighed on the price of other goods and services. 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do falling oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But with the coronavirus continuing to spread and people increasingly avoiding... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Given rising inflation and the sharp fall in the peso, we no longer think that the Bank of Mexico will cut its key rate this month in line with the Fed. Policymakers will probably leave rates on hold. 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
