India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Dec.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 3.0% y/y in December is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y over the first half of this year. That said, this period of above-target... 8th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s inflation data will provide some relief to policymakers at the ECB, but we are still sceptical that core inflation is about to start on a sustained upward trend. In our view, the Bank’s... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Dec.) Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian inflation, Polish MPC, IMF slates Turkey The drop in Russian inflation in December, combined with comments from the central bank governor, support our view that there will be at least one more interest rate cut in the current easing cycle... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The fall in Mexican inflation to 2.6% y/y in the first two weeks of December, from 3.0% in the full month of November, will pave the way for Banxico to continue its easing cycle in the coming months... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to change little in 2020, even as oil prices rise Inflation in developed markets is likely to be stable in 2020 as a rise in energy inflation is offset by a drop in core. We forecast oil prices to rise to over $70pb in the coming years, so energy... 20th December 2019 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation, to 3.9% y/y in the first half of December, from 2.7% a month earlier rules out another interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting in February. 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation rose sharply in November but we think it will moderate over the coming months as capacity shortages diminish. But we are not convinced that the Bank of Japan will respond by cutting... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Consumer Prices (Nov.) While the decade high for core inflation in November should mark the peak, it is another reason to think that, despite a further deterioration in the activity data, the Bank of Canada will remain on... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
