UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s inflation figures will probably mean that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be content to sit on its hands at its meeting tomorrow. But unless the tone of the economic news improves... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Nov.) Nigerian inflation picked up again in November, driven mostly by rising food inflation. We think that the headline rate will continue to climb over the coming months and that policymakers will leave... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation rose for the first time in eight months in November. While not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, this adds to the impression that the... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s IMF deal, Russian GDP & CEE inflation Ukraine is on the cusp of securing a new IMF deal but history suggests that the government will struggle to meet the Fund’s demands, which could put the recent rally in the bond market into reverse... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The further surge in headline inflation in November casts doubt on the possibility of further monetary easing. If the headline rate remains high above the central bank’s 4.0% target this month as well... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) A rise in energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation up to a one-year high last month, but the stability of core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain subdued. In that environment... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) The pick-up in Swedish inflation in November means that a rate hike by the Riksbank next week is all but guaranteed. But with surveys continuing to show that the economy is struggling, and core... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Nov.) South African inflation stayed very weak in November, but petrol prices will push up the headline rate in December. Despite a flagging economy, we doubt that the SARB will cut its key policy rate... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Core inflation probably peaked in November Our calculations suggest that an average of the Bank of Canada’s three core inflation measures edged up to a fresh 10-year high in November. But given GDP growth has been below potential for much of... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway and Denmark Consumer Prices (Nov.) While we expect the Norges Bank to leave its key policy interest rate on hold at 1.50% for the foreseeable future, the persistence of core price pressures means that the balance of risks is skewed... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read