Capital Daily Chinese government bonds’ fortunes could still turn We think Chinese government bond yields will be on the way back down before long, despite the PBOC’s apparent caution around rate cuts. 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Low volatility in Treasuries isn’t necessarily a worrying sign One feature of the summer lull in markets has been a slump in ICE BofAML’s MOVE Index of expected volatility in Treasuries, to its lowest level in more than three years. But this fall doesn’t... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ongoing equity rotation We don’t think the relatively unusual rotations within the US stock market are a sign that the relentless march of US equities, and especially the big tech sectors leading the way, is nearly at an end... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2025) The fourth consecutive rise in home sales in July means that the housing market is developing close to our expectations, with prices stabilising last month. Housing starts recorded another strong... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global macro and market risks to watch in 2025’s final stretch 4th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Tariffs in effect. Inflation under debate. Divided central banks. Geopolitical strains. Equities at record highs.
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Reassessing the dollar outlook ahead of Jackson Hole The dollar remains on the backfoot as expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting continue to solidify. We now expect policymakers will opt for a 25bp cut next month, and a cumulative... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What could end the yen’s puzzling weakness? We still think the Japanese yen will stage a sustained rally against the US dollar. 15th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Does it matter if you can’t trust the economic data? For the time being, there is little sign of either US equities or bonds being undermined by faltering trust in key economic data. But that might not last. 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Rally in EM financial markets slowing: what’s next? After a stellar performance in the first half of 2025, the emerging market (EM) asset rally has slowed over the past few weeks following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements. While we... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess? Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in China’s equities may not be over yet The near-term outlook for China’s equities could be quite positive, despite the apparent headwinds. 13th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC cuts wouldn’t guarantee lower long-end yields Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
