Bonds Update On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why the stock market may not care if the Fed disappoints A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar on the backfoot ahead of key US inflation data The dollar has continued to edge lower in the wake of last week’s payrolls shock and a weak ISM reading this week as US interest expectations adjust lower. Given the extent of that adjustment – money... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Will the post-payrolls calm last? After notching one of their biggest 1-day falls in recent years last Friday, Treasury yields have this week traded in a historically tight range despite no shortage of catalysts. If we’re right to... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update The case for a dollar rebound despite that payrolls shock We still expect the dollar to recover some ground over the rest of 2025 as interest rate differentials shift back in favour of the US and some of the policy uncertainty discount evident in the dollar... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect the BoE to cut further and gilt yields to fall The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Who’s really worried about the US economy? Although there are growing concerns in some quarters about the health of the US economy, neither equity analysts nor investors seem worried. 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: external risks no longer loom so large Indonesia’s current account position has improved markedly since the onset of the pandemic and we expect the deficit to stay small over the next couple of years. The rupiah will probably depreciate... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: current account deficit becoming a bigger concern Brazil’s current account deficit has continued to widen and is likely to reach around 4.0% of GDP by year-end. Financing this should be manageable, provided the domestic policymaking backdrop doesn’t... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls history repeat & market fallout Financial markets have stabilised after Friday’s US payrolls shock and, unlike this time last year, there are few signs that large swings in government bond and currency markets are leading to a... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls déjà vu threatens the dollar’s rebound Today’s weak US non-farm payrolls data has undone much of the dollar’s rally this week. While the DXY index is still on up the week, and ~2.5% stronger since the start of July, the increased risk of a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
