Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2024) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 29th November 2024. We publish more detailed... 3rd December 2024 · 1 min read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 3rd December 2024, 3:00PM GMT The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Capital Daily Another BRIC in the stronger dollar wall? President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat, this time against the “BRICS” economies, is another early taste of his combative approach to trade policy and its potential impact on financial markets... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Is the gold rally over? Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidation for now; yen rally likely to continue The US dollar has finally hit a speedbump this week, with the DXY index registering its first weekly drop since late September. Given the continued resilience of the US economy – we expect next week’s... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Little upside risks for Bund yields from US tariff threat National inflation data for November released today suggest that euro-zone inflation has edged up this month, but we think this is just a blip. We still expect inflation to drop below target next year... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Lower inflation and interest rates, as well as easing supply-side constraints, should lead to a pick-up in regional growth in the coming quarters. But multiple headwinds, including (for some) a... 27th November 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ rate cuts could still sink the Kiwi dollar We expect the New Zealand dollar to fall against the US and Australian dollars over the next year or so, and fare worse than most – if not all – other G10 currencies. 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the revival of US small-caps We aren’t convinced the outperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities since Donald Trump’s victory on 5th November sets the tone for the first half of 2025. We doubt they will start to fare better than... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Downbeat prospects for Latin America regardless of Trump Latin American (LatAm) markets have been generally resilient in the aftermath of the US election, possibly because investors were already pessimistic about the region’s prospects. But we think... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
