Europe Economics Update ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be... 18th November 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Making the dollar great again The US dollar continues to build on its post-election rally, with the DXY index now at its highest level in more than a year. While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term given the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The poor prospects for China’s stock market We think that downward pressure on Chinese equities will intensify over the coming year or so, as the boost from largely insufficient fiscal support fades and Trump’s incoming administration proceeds... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Revising our currency forecasts to account for Trump The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the Treasury yield curve? We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation might soon be front-page news again While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. 13th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500? We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. 12th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro parity is back on the cards The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than... 11th November 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trump, tariffs, and the dollar While President Trump’s return to the White House and the apparent Republican sweep in Congress made a big splash in currency markets – Wednesday saw the largest single day rise in the DXY index since... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump really be good for US equities? We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
