Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bond yields rising, tariff barriers climbing We're sceptical that the government's supply-side reform will succeed in pulling the economy out of deflation, suggesting the recent rise in government bond yields won't be sustained. And, while... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Respite at the very long end of the yield curve may be brief We don’t think the falls in the yields of very long-dated government bonds will last much longer. 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update We don’t think there’s a bubble in China’s stock market We aren’t persuaded that there’s excessive exuberance in China’s stock market, despite some recent commentary. We continue to expect it to fare well for a while yet. 12th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Event Drop-In: Where is r* heading? Catching up on equilibrium real rates 30th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Two years ago, we argued that structural forces – from AI-driven productivity gains to ageing demographics and higher government borrowing – would push equilibrium real interest rates in the US and
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update What next for the S&P 500 after another all-time high? All-time highs in the S&P 500 and years of strong gains don’t mean the index is set to run out of steam. Rather than the level or momentum of the market, history suggests that returns from here will... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily More to the S&P 500’s strength than the prospect of easier money While the prospect of looser Fed policy has helped to drive the S&P 500 to new highs in recent months, there is another reason the index has surged. This isn’t an increase in its valuation compared to... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: deficit breach could send bond spreads wider Concerns that Indonesia’s government will breach it’s 3% of GDP budget deficit rule have only grown after the replacement of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani. While the fiscal risk premium in... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Key questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Indonesia This Update answers the key questions on recent developments in Indonesia and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the country’s financial markets. We discussed many of these... 10th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily French bonds are up the Bayrou without a paddle The (largely expected) fall of the French government has made limited impact on euro-zone financial markets. But it represents another step in the gradual deterioration of the outlook for French... 9th September 2025 · 4 mins read
