India Economics Weekly India Weekly: What we learnt from the Modi-Trump meeting India would appear to be one of the most exposed countries worldwide to a US reciprocal tariff. But concessions made in the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump this week raise hope that India... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost... 13th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off has a bit further to run Another January price surge has sparked a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, and supports our view that further Fed rate cuts are off the table this year. While we think US equities will resume their... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Indian rupee and equities set for further weakness A slowdown in the economy, alongside an unfavourable external environment, have contributed to declines in the Indian stock market and the rupee. We continue to expect the stock market to decline... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Getting to grips with TIPS Although the 10-year TIPS yield has fallen on net since the start of this year, we doubt it will drop to an even lower level by the end of 2025. That’s because we don’t expect the slight further... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Tariff relief may prove fleeting for currency markets The dollar’s boost from tariff announcements last weekend proved short-lived and, despite rallying a bit in response to the latest Employment Report, the greenback is set to end the week lower against... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response 4th April 2025, 2:30PM BST With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this s
Event Drop-In: US-China tariffs rollback – Does this mark a lasting ceasefire in the trade war? 12th May 2025, 3:00PM BST Markets have received a boost from news that the US and China have agreed to a significant rollback of tariffs.
Event Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question 20th February 2025, 3:00PM GMT Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to
Event Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlook 30th April 2025, 4:00AM BST Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner.
Event Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond? 17th April 2025, 3:30PM BST The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
Event Drop-In: What Trump’s tariffs mean for Asian economies and markets 10th April 2025, 8:00AM BST The escalation of tariffs by the US and China now threatens to rupture the flow of trade between the world’s two largest economies.
Event Drop-In: The escalating trade war and its economic and market effects 9th April 2025, 2:30PM BST China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Event Drop-In: Is the dollar’s global dominance a casualty of tariff chaos? 24th April 2025, 3:00PM BST The chaos over US tariffs – and the subsequent fallout in financial markets – has raised fundamental questions about the role of the US dollar within the global economy and in
