Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets. 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to... 6th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to make of US recession fears and stock market turmoil 1722861000 Fears about US recession are fuelling volatility in financial markets, sending stock prices and bond yields sharply lower. But how justified are these fears?
Capital Daily Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider. 5th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the US economy will stall the equity rally for long Renewed fears of a US recession have increased the chances of additional rate cuts from the Fed. But we don’t think that the US economy will stand in the way of an equity rally for much longer. 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Recession fears and the dollar, lessons from 2020 & 2023 Between a dovish message from the FOMC on Wednesday and a shockingly weak non-farm payrolls report today, the dollar is ending a turbulent week on the back foot. US interest rate expectations have... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Given that we broadly share investors' view about how far DM central banks will ease... 2nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The US election and financial markets three months out Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump... 1st August 2024 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields. 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
