Event Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes 1st October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank of…
India Economics Update How might the H-1B visa crackdown affect India? Viewed in an optimistic light, President Trump’s overhaul of the H-1B visa programme could benefit India’s economy if more high-skilled workers now stay in the country. But to the extent that... 22nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed puts the dollar on firmer footing The US dollar is set to end the week up against most other G10 currencies after a strong couple of days, driven by investors paring back their expectations for rate cuts after this week’s FOMC meeting... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The great pension switch into equities: for richer or poorer? The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Big policy tests for China, India and Indonesia 25th September 2025, 9:00AM BST Asia ex-Japan’s three biggest economies are each grappling with major policy tests.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile... 18th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal fears likely to stay baked into Gilt yields We still think the 10-year Gilt yield will fall by the end of 2026 as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to anticipate. But with term premia likely to remain elevated... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the clock ticking on China’s equity rally? We think China’s equities will make further gains. 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields & dollar still likely to rebound Another set of robust US activity data suggest that the US economy remains in decent shape despite the recent slowdown in employment growth. This suggests to us that the FOMC will stick to a more... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for dollar ahead of the FOMC We no longer expect much of a rebound in the US dollar this year as the FOMC is about to resume rate cuts. But given the extent of Fed easing already discounted, our base case remains that the dollar... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equity allocation starting to flash red for the US stock market The share of equities in the financial assets of US households and nonprofit institutions serving them (NPISH) hit its highest level in at least 75 years in the second quarter of this year. That... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC likely to bring some relief for struggling greenback The dollar has weakened a little further this week after US inflation and jobs data again came out on the soft side. This probably cements a 25bp rate cut next week’s FOMC meeting. But we continue to... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
