FX Markets Update EM FX rally has run its course as tariffs add to downside risk Despite some weakness on the back of the latest tariff threats, emerging market currencies have broadly appreciated against the US dollar this year, mostly due to greenback-specific headwinds. We... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump tariffs and the dollar revisited (again) The Trump administration’s continued re-escalation of tariffs threats have so far made limited impact on financial markets, but one key difference in the way market participants have digested the... 14th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Focus Measuring Treasury term premia Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the... 14th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Indonesia in turmoil – Macro and market implications 9th September 2025, 8:00AM BST The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories.
Event Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences 9th February 2026, 8:00AM GMT Our Japan economists were online the day after the election to analyse the results, explore what they mean for Japan’s fiscal and monetary balance, and discuss the implications for Ja
Event UK Drop-In: The Chancellor’s Spring Statement – Fiscal signals, political risks, market implications 3rd March 2026, 3:00PM GMT Our UK team hosted this on-the-day briefing covering the latest signals from Number 11, and what they mean for the UK's economic and financial market outlook.
Event Drop-In: The precious metals sell-off and market risks 2nd February 2026, 1:00PM GMT The week has opened with signs that the sharp fall in precious metals prices is spilling over into broader financial markets.
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England March meeting preview – Rate cuts after the energy shock 12th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT Uncertainty around the duration of the conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices near multi-year highs and threatening expectations that the Bank of England will continue cutting rates t
Event Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes 1st October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank
Event Drop-In: Another French government falls – what next for its economy and markets? 6th October 2025, 3:00PM BST The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook.
Event Drop-In: France’s political turmoil and the fragility of global bond markets 9th September 2025, 10:00AM BST François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year.
Event Drop-In: Global Economic and Market Outlook – Pricing the energy shock 26th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT The surge in energy prices that has accompanied fresh fighting in the Middle East challenges assumptions around global growth, inflation and central bank policy across both developed
Event Markets Drop-In: From bonds to equities – The great pensions switch and its risks 30th September 2025, 9:00AM BST US household exposure to equities is at levels not seen in at least 75 years.
