Chief Economist's Note Tariffs and AI – Why markets are being roiled by this year’s two dominant themes The past week was bookended by developments in two areas that will play a significant role in shaping the year ahead: tariffs and technology. Tariff man strikes On Saturday, President Trump announced... 3rd February 2025
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar on the up as tariffs loom The dollar looks set to come out on top against most currencies after a week of central bank meetings, corporate earnings and economic data generally shifted yield gaps in its favour and reinforced US... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Bund yields falling this year even if UST yields don’t Even though we forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2025 close to its current level, we anticipate that the 10-year Bund yield will fall over the rest of the year as the ECB, unlike the Fed... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa this year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in some... 30th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Plan to “kickstart” UK growth fails to impress markets While there has not been much market reaction to the speech that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered today on how to “kickstart economic growth”, we are still quite optimistic about the long-term... 29th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025) Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Financial markets update - How Trump and AI are shaping the 2025 outlook 1738638000 We’re only a month in and it’s already been an eventful 2025 for financial markets.
Equities Update The rally in bank stocks has room to run US bank stocks in the S&P 500 have generally outperformed their peers over the past year and the key factors driving this look set to persist in 2025. So, we think they will remain around the front of... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market rally without its leaders? We think it’s too soon to say whether this is the start of a slump for those large US firms which have benefited most from AI hype until now – but if it was, what would it mean for the S&P 500? Our... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Deep trouble for the US stock market? News that Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s AI Assistant has usurped US OpenAI’s ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app on Apple’s App Store has dealt the US stock market a blow today, just a week after... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Disappointment for the dollar in Trump’s first week back The dollar is ending President Trump’s first week back in office on the backfoot. Between the absence of immediate tariffs in this week’s flurry of executive orders, Trump’s renewed attacks on the Fed... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
