Latin America Economics Update US throws a lifeline to the Argentinian peso US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s renewed pledge to “do what is needed” to support Argentina in a post on X earlier today, including purchases of Argentinian sovereign US dollar bonds and a... 24th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Is the appreciation of the baht a threat to the Thai economy? Despite policymakers’ renewed concern over the Thai baht’s rise, there is little evidence that the appreciation of the currency is hurting the economy. We do not expect it to be a major drag on growth... 24th September 2025 · 8 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Markets Drop-In: From bonds to equities – The great pensions switch and its risks 30th September 2025, 9:00AM BST US household exposure to equities is at levels not seen in at least 75 years.
Capital Daily What do market prices say about the US neutral rate? Market pricing suggests that investors think the neutral rate isn’t too far below the current level of the fed funds rate. We agree, which is one reason we don’t expect a renewed rally in US... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s stock market likely to weather the BoJ’s slow withdrawal While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a smaller player in equities than it is in bonds, the central bank acquired lots of shares via its ETF programme. So, it’s hardly surprising the BoJ’s announcement on... 22nd September 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes 1st October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank
India Economics Update How might the H-1B visa crackdown affect India? Viewed in an optimistic light, President Trump’s overhaul of the H-1B visa programme could benefit India’s economy if more high-skilled workers now stay in the country. But to the extent that... 22nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed puts the dollar on firmer footing The US dollar is set to end the week up against most other G10 currencies after a strong couple of days, driven by investors paring back their expectations for rate cuts after this week’s FOMC meeting... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The great pension switch into equities: for richer or poorer? The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Big policy tests for China, India and Indonesia 25th September 2025, 9:00AM BST Asia ex-Japan’s three biggest economies are each grappling with major policy tests.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile... 18th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal fears likely to stay baked into Gilt yields We still think the 10-year Gilt yield will fall by the end of 2026 as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to anticipate. But with term premia likely to remain elevated... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
