Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed’s 50bp has the dollar down, but not necessarily out The FOMC’s decision to kick off its easing cycle with a bang has boosted risk sentiment – with the S&P 500 surging to a new all-time high – and put the US dollar on the backfoot again. However, the US... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets & Fed easing: lessons from previous easing cycles After the Fed recently delivered its first rate cut, we look at previous US loosening cycles to analyse how emerging markets assets have performed. This time around we expect the US to skirt a... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts While UK Gilt yields might rise a bit further in the near term, we think that they will fall back before long, as the Bank of England eventually delivers more rate cuts than most anticipate. 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the easing cycle already priced in? Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early... 19th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economic outlook matters more than “50 vs 25” Policymakers have put themselves in a tricky spot ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC announcement. But whatever the size of the policy rate cut they end up delivering, the outlook for the US economy is... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US households’ appetite for equities US households’ appetite for equities often depends on how confident they feel. Its strength in recent years is therefore rather surprising, given that their mood hasn’t been upbeat. Sentiment did perk... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Struggling dollar may be due a break The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
