Equities Focus Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? India’s stock market has had such a good few years that it started to raise concerns about whether it was in a “bubble”. And as it’s come under pressure recently, some have speculated that the bubble... 26th November 2024 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of another yield curve inversion The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields has ‘inverted’ again, partly because the nomination of Bessent as US Treasury secretary has eased fiscal concerns. But we forecast the curve to... 25th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (First Round) The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking... 25th November 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar goes from strength to strength The US dollar has rallied further this week as investors have continued to price in the implications of a second Trump term and digest weak economic data in key trading partners. This rally has taken... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of the US election fallout With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our new, lower, forecasts for non-US equities Given our expectation that the Trump administration will push forward with plans to raise tariffs across the board, we have generally revised down our forecasts for stock markets outside the US. And... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over? We don’t think the S&P 500’s AI tailwind has run out of puff yet, despite the seemingly lukewarm market reaction to Nvidia’s latest profit result. 21st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will inflation worries keep UK yields as high as US ones? Inflation has picked up in the UK but, unlike in the US, we doubt that any worries about stronger price pressures will be sustained. That’s why we still expect Gilt yields to fall. 20th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Upward pressure on JGB yields could ease next year We doubt upward pressure on Japan’s long-term bond yields will persist for long, as the Bank of Japan tightens policy by less than investors anticipate and yields in the US remain quite stable. 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Oct. 2024) The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities We still see most yields falling despite higher Treasury yields Higher US interest rates will probably continue to weigh on government bonds globally. But we still expect bond yields in most developed market (DM) economies to fall back by the end of 2025, as... 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US equities to remain bond-proof Although last week’s pull-back in the S&P 500 coincided with a big increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, we don’t think this marks the start of prolonged period of weakness in US equities driven by... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
