Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s sticking plaster, EU trade deal, rate cuts June trade figures out this week reinforced how perilous Argentina's balance of payments situation is, but officials continue to opt for temporary fixes rather than addressing the root problem - the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2023) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting on 2nd August. We have pencilled in a... 11th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Strong survey data, Brazil’s tax reform The batch of recently-released survey data for June from Brazil and Mexico suggests that both economies gathered momentum at the end of Q2. But we doubt that this will be sustained and expect growth... 7th July 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the Brazilian real’s rally will reverse soon We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. We are also sending this FX... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s export boom likely to fade The surge in Brazil’s exports since the start of the pandemic has helped the economy recover more quickly than we and most others had anticipated. And unlike previous spikes in exports, some of the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (May 2023) The weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partly reverses April’s 0.6% m/m decline and suggests that industry remained weak over the course of the second... 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut, Argentina shifting towards the centre? The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting made clear that the easing cycle will kick off in August, but they also confirmed our long held view that the easing cycle will be gradual –... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Strong currencies lend helping hand in inflation fight It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2023) & Copom Minutes The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.4% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with the surprisingly dovish tilt on Copom shown in the minutes to the last meeting, have prompted us to... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BRL on a tear, monetary policy divergence The strong performance of the Brazilian real appears to have been driven by a rise in the price of some of Brazil's key export commodities. But we expect these prices to fall back over the remainder... 23rd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom lines up September rate cut The somewhat cautious tone of the statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%) will disappoint those hoping for an interest rate cut... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read