Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three lessons from Brazil’s recent easing cycles Brazil’s monetary tightening cycle is very close to being (or may already be) over, and attention is quickly turning to when and how far Copom will lower interest rates. Historically, the market has... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2025) The 1.4% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP was partly driven by a boom in the agricultural sector at the start of the year, which is likely to unwind. But it now looks like the economy is on course to... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in the first half of May means that the risks to our forecast for a final hike in June are skewed to the downside. But if the Q1 GDP data due... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Brazil’s robust Q1, Milei’s victory, Panama protests Data out of Brazil next week are likely to show that the economy rebounded in Q1 and inflation rose in the first half of May, supporting the case for the central bank to deliver one final rate hike in... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am elections: about to shift back to the right? The low public support for (left-wing) incumbents in many of Latin America’s largest economies, taken together with weak public finances, suggests that the wave of the upcoming elections could act as... 21st May 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US and China try to shift the fracturing map The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lower oil prices, Banxico on track for another 50bp cut The downward revision to our oil price forecast is likely to exacerbate public finance risks in some of the region's major oil producers, notably Colombia and Ecuador. But other countries, especially... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: widening current account deficit leaves real at risk Brazil’s current account deficit has widened sharply over the past twelve months and we think it could reach 4.0-4.5% of GDP over the next couple of years. This leaves the real vulnerable to renewed... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2025) Brazil’s central bank hiked the Selic rate by a further 50bp, to 14.75%, today and officials made clear in the accompanying statement that the tightening cycle is near an end. We are sticking with our... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: BanRep’s dovish shift, Copom nearing an end The unanimous decision by Colombia's central bank to lower its policy rate by 25bp, to 9.25%, earlier this week suggests that the Board is more dovish than we’d thought. That will raise fears, similar... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in March looks set to be followed by further increases towards 6% y/y over the coming months. Copom will almost certainly deliver a bit more... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
