Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2024) The sharp slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth, to just 0.2% q/q, in the final quarter of last year confirms that the economy’s recent period of strong growth has come to an abrupt end. We now think the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.0% y/y in the first half of February means Copom will almost certainly press ahead with another 100bp hike in the Selic rate to, 14.25%, at its March... 25th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and... 17th February 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jan. 2025) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in January, to 4.6% y/y, was mainly due a drop in housing inflation and is unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering another 100bp hike to the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of steel and aluminium tariffs The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) Brazil’s central bank delivered on its pledge to deliver another 100bp hike to the Selic rate, to 13.25%, and another 100bp increase at March’s Copom meeting is all but certain. For now, we are... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025) Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent jitters across the region, with... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025) Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2024) The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.8% y/y, coupled with the rebound in the real over the past couple of weeks, won’t be enough to stop Copom following through with further... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy? Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent... 8th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
