Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2023) The much faster-than-expected Brazilian Q2 GDP growth figure of 0.9% q/q suggests that the economy is in stronger health than many – ourselves included – had thought. We think growth will be weaker... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s fiscal framework, Ecuador’s vote Panama's economy will bear the brunt of the disruption at the Panama Canal caused by a severe drought. But given the Canal's importance to global trade, there are also likely to be global implications... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (August 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.2% y/y in the middle of the month (and the prospect of further increases over the rest of Q3) are likely to dash hopes that the central bank... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil's and Mexico's economies are likely to outperform others in the region in 2023, but... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina votes, more good news on inflation Argentines vote on Sunday in presidential primaries, known as the PASO, which should give a first sign of whether the country will buck the regional political trend and shift to the right at the... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering interest rates at its September meeting. By the same token, however, the figure... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly LatAm central banks kick off easing cycles with a bang The decisions in the past week by central banks in both Chile and Brazil to cut interest rates confirm that Latin America remains at the front of the pack in this global monetary cycle. We think Peru... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (June 2023) The slightly better-than-expected 0.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in June indicates that the sector grew a little more quickly in Q2 than it did in Q1. Even so, there’s nothing in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s debt upgrade, Argentina-IMF, easing cycles Fitch’s decision to upgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating this week provides another sign that fiscal concerns in the country are easing, but we remain sceptical that the government will be able to... 28th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s sticking plaster, EU trade deal, rate cuts June trade figures out this week reinforced how perilous Argentina's balance of payments situation is, but officials continue to opt for temporary fixes rather than addressing the root problem - the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read