Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia votes, Copom confusion

Right-wing candidate de la Espriella is well placed to secure Colombia’s presidency on Sunday, paving the way for a shift towards more business-friendly policies and fiscal austerity. But he will...

19th June 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Diverging rate paths

Latin America has been resilient to the energy shock but other headwinds are likely to hold back regional growth to around 2% over the coming years, making it the worst-performing EM region. The...

18th June 2026 · 21 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026)

Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp today, to 14.25%, and the accompanying statement appears to leave the door open to further rate cuts.

17th June 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fujimori edges ahead, CPI prints, Copom to hold

It's looking increasingly likely that right-wing candidate Fujimori will secure Peru's presidency. She's likely to govern on a conservative, market-friendly platform, but her ability to push through...

12th June 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (May 2026)

The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May keeps next week’s Copom meeting finely balanced between a hold and a 25bp cut. On balance, we think that the former is more likely.

12th June 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia shifts right, 301 tariffs, El Niño

Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election increases the likelihood of a shift to more pro-market policymaking and improved relations with the US. But we...

5th June 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

The price of free time in Latin America

Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most...

2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q1 2026)

The acceleration in GDP growth in Brazil, to an above-consensus 1.1% q/q in Q1, comes alongside a further increase in inflation and a continued strong labour market at the start of the year, and is...

29th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (May 2026)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. High energy prices have given a boost to terms of trade in many Latin American...

27th May 2026 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil GDP, Peru & Colombia elections, Cuba tensions

Data due next Friday are likely to show that growth in Brazil's economy rebounded by 0.7% q/q in Q1. Coming alongside the recent rise in inflation, that raises the possibility that the BCB may opt for...

22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil inflation, COP drop, Venezuela’s restructuring

The latest macro data keep the door open to monetary easing in Brazil, but a rise in energy prices or an escalation of the scandal involving presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro that weighs more...

15th May 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Terms of trade boost giving Brazil a lift

The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5%...

12th May 2026 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Apr. 2026)

The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.4% y/y in April shouldn't prevent the central bank (BCB) from continuing with its cautious monetary easing cycle. We expect 25bp interest rate cuts at each of the...

12th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Copom rates, Brazil’s rare earths, fiscal developments

With the latest indicators suggesting that Brazil's economy is holding up well and the labour market is still strong, we now expect the Selic rate to end this year at 13.25% (compared to 12.50%...

8th May 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil pivots towards rare earth nationalism

A bill approved by Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies this week tackles some of the key impediments to (currently minimal) rare earths extraction. However, the bill gives the government significant control...

7th May 2026 · 4 mins read