Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Worsening current account positions, Bolivia’s election One theme to emerge from the recently-released GDP figures is that domestic demand is increasingly leaking into imports, which will cause current account positions to worsen. External positions still... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2025) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.2% y/y in July, won’t change the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting in September, where interest rates will be left unchanged. But it lends support to our... 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s remittance drop, Pemex, Brazil adapts to tariffs The large drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an economic impact south of the border... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: current account deficit becoming a bigger concern Brazil’s current account deficit has continued to widen and is likely to reach around 4.0% of GDP by year-end. Financing this should be manageable, provided the domestic policymaking backdrop doesn’t... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement & US Tariffs (Jul. 2025) Brazil’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 15.00% as expected today, but the decision was overshadowed by President Trump’s Executive Order earlier today raising tariffs to 50% on imports... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2025) The stable Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July (of 5.3% y/y), signs that underlying core inflation is easing, and the resilience of the real all but confirm that Copom won’t hike rates... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
