Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom pours cold water on near-term rate cut hopes Brazilian policymakers gave a firm push back against any expectations for imminent monetary easing at yesterday’s central bank meeting, supporting our view that interest rates will be lowered a bit... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strength in exports unlikely to last The surge in exports from Latin America’s major economies in March suggests that the upside risks to our GDP growth and currency forecasts are building. But with advanced economies poised to fall into... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Monetary policy stance slowly shifting The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2023) The drop in Brazilian inflation to a 30-month low of 4.2% y/y in the middle of April was mainly a result of a sharp decline in food inflation, which is at its lowest rate since the start of the... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule, shifting monetary policy tide? The new fiscal framework presented to congress by Brazil’s government this week would, if implemented in full, go a long way towards stabilising Brazil's public finances. But there are several hurdles... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) Brazilian industrial production fell for a third consecutive month in February and, while the latest surveys suggest that industry held up a bit better in March, the bigger picture is that Q1 looks to... 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first 100 days, Chile’s and Brazil’s export boost This week marked Brazil’s president Lula's first 100 days in office and, while there’s been a bit more enthusiasm from investors for Brazilian assets in the past week, the big picture is that it’s... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar rush won’t last Global sugar prices have surged by over 20% since the start of the year as production estimates in several key producers have been downgraded. We think the supply picture is unlikely to change by much... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Feb.) The plunge in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.7% y/y, was driven by a sharp decline in food inflation; core inflation remains high and the headline inflation rate is set to rise again next... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hawks, Ecuador’s political crisis The new fiscal rule proposed by Brazil's Finance Ministry yesterday might have eased the central bank's fiscal concerns somewhat, but we doubt it will bring forward the timing of interest rate cuts... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read