Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) The moderate decline in retail sales volumes in February was probably due to the unseasonably severe winter weather rather than the recent slump in sentiment, with the latest flash estimate implying... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Are the markets expecting too many rate cuts? While the deteriorating outlook for activity increases the chances of the Bank of England continuing to cut interest rates at its recent pace of one 25 basis point cut every quarter, which translates... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey shows resilient US CRE sentiment, but downside risks ahead The Q1 RICS US commercial property survey reported steady investment sentiment. That is in line with our belief that the market is headed for an upturn, although the impact of new tariffs and the... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2025) March’s rise in retail sales volumes meant sales rebounded by an impressive 1.6% q/q in Q1, rounding off a better-than-expected start to the year for the retail sector. That said, March’s rise was... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation will prompt further policy tightening At its meeting next week, the Bank of Japan will reportedly push back the timing for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. That would be a mistake though as the fallout from global... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2025) The fall in existing home sales in March serves as a good reminder that more home listings alone are not enough to revive the market. Affordability also has to meaningfully improve which, based on our... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Still little sign of a DOGE-related drag We forecast a healthy 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April given that the drag from cuts to the federal workforce still appears minimal. Otherwise, we think the unemployment rate ticked back... 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Mar 2025) The jump in durable goods orders in March was driven entirely by a large rise in orders received by Boeing. Excluding transport, core goods orders flatlined. With the post-strike boost from the... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will hike again in July The Bank of Japan will revise down its forecasts for GDP growth at the upcoming meeting and keep policy settings unchanged. However, we expect the Board to signal continued confidence in meeting its... 24th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stagflationary impact of tariffs The latest flash PMIs suggest that tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on activity and confidence in most DMs at the start of Q2 and boosted price pressures in the US. 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Mar. 2025) Lower mortgage rates drove a sharp rise in new home sales in March, showing that the market still has solid momentum despite inventory creeping up in the resale segment. However, with mortgage rates... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
