US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (June) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in core CPI in June strengthens the case for a September rate cut although, while a lot still depends on the PPI data due tomorrow, our initial estimate is that the core... 11th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Will the BOJ hike rates again before the policy window closes? 1722412800 With shifting Japanese inflation dynamics likely to shrink the Bank of Japan’s opportunity to tighten policy in the coming months, we think its July meeting will
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2024) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in May (consensus forecast 0.2%, CE forecast 0.3%) will be welcomed by the new Chancellor after announcing earlier this week that she will make... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: Reeves' growth speech and the government's economic priorities This report was originally published on 10th July, 2024 The speech this morning by Chancellor Rachel Reeves attempts to do two things: reset the narrative around growth, following an October Budget... 10th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Shipping costs have now risen far enough to start adding to global CPI inflation. However, so far, the boost to prices is probably only in the region of 0.1%, on average. What’s more, surging freight... 10th July 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update More dynamism not lifting productivity yet While there are tentative signs that Japan’s economy is becoming more dynamic, this has yet to produce significant improvements in aggregate productivity. We still think that a more meaningful pick-up... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Crunch time for the Bank of England? 1721291400 We’ve reassessed our expectations for the start of Bank of England rate cuts in light of the latest UK CPI and employment data.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of May’s plunge in household spending The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump now has clear lead Following Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which appears to have hit his polling numbers and gone down badly with big donors, there is clearly now a good chance that he drops out of the race... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US? With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10 As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2024) The modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate to 6.4% in June raise the chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again this month, and makes us more confident in our... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
