UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024) June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2024) The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced soon and... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2024) May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of worse-than-expected outturns. However, they do little to reduce the fiscal constraints that will... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Concerns over weaker yen will prompt July rate hike The Bank of Japan is concerned that the weak yen will result in a renewed acceleration in non-energy goods inflation and we think that the slide of the exchange rate to multi-decade lows this week... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 24) The jump in headline inflation in May mostly reflected electricity price hikes that have further to run. By contrast, underlying inflation continued to slow rapidly and it will fall below 2% over the... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a broad-based fall in DM bond yields Despite the many twists and turns in bond markets this month amid mixed signals from central banks, most sovereign bonds in developed markets (DM) have rallied on net. We expect this to continue, with... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Southern metros set to outperform The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots... 20th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves? The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may cut rates in August, but rates may reach 3.00% later The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May 2024) The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year. 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024) 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2024) The modest rebound in GDP last quarter doesn’t change the bigger picture that the New Zealand economy is worse for wear. In fact, timely survey data suggest that things may well get worse before they... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2024) The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 2024) Trade volumes were little changed in May which suggests that net trade provided a small drag on GDP growth this quarter. 19th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Downtowns will recover, but not any time soon The gap between downtown and suburban office vacancy rates has widened alarmingly since 2020. This reflects pandemic-driven changes to working patterns, exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown. In our... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (May 2024) The strong rebound in manufacturing output in May was better than we expected but, given the softness of the earlier retail sales release, it does not change the big picture that second-quarter GDP... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
