US Rapid Response Retail Sales (May) The soft May retail sales data support our view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth remains a little lacklustre in the second quarter too. Our forecast now stands at 1.9%. 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates next year The RBA discussed another rate hike at today’s meeting and an upside surprise to Q2 inflation could force its hand at its August meeting. However, with capacity constraints easing and government... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2024) 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jun. 2024) The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage... 17th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks 1718805600 Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.
Canada Economics Weekly Households deleveraging only slowly The household debt-to-income ratio fell again in the first quarter, albeit because incomes continued to rise at a faster pace than debt levels. Although the aggregate situation is slowly improving... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a seven-month low of 65.6 in June, from 69.1, suggests that households are now struggling more under the weight of higher... 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Apr. 2024) 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook 1720168200 Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy?
Japan Economics Update Bank will hike its policy rate once more in July The Bank of Japan disappointed markets today by announcing that it will only present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at its July meeting. We think it will also deliver a final policy... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past impact of energy rebates This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jun. 24) The Bank of Japan announced today that it will present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting in July and we think it will also deliver a final policy rate hike then... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read