US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A beacon of economic and political stability? While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2024 Final) The upward revision to Q1 GDP growth from 0.6% q/q to 0.7% q/q (consensus forecast 0.6% q/q) suggests whoever is Prime Minister this time next week may benefit from the economic recovery being a bit... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in underlying inflation points to July rate hike The yen weakened to multi-decade lows against the dollar this week and the Bank of Japan is getting increasingly worried that rising import costs are creating upside risks to inflation. Indeed, the... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production (May) The strong rebound in industrial production in May suggests that Japan’s economy turned a turner this quarter, but if output falls as much as firms are expecting this month, that strength won’t last. 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (June) The continued fall in the job-to-applicant ratio isn’t translating into a higher labour market and the bulk of the evidence suggests that the labour market has continued to tighten. And with... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand to moderate We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in June. The unemployment rate probably edged back down to 3.9%, while we expect a renewed slowdown in wage growth. 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How much fiscal ‘headroom’ will the next government have? If the polls are correct and Labour wins the election, the policies it implements and when it implements them will depend in part on the ‘headroom’ against the fiscal rules it is given by the Office... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably... 27th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024) The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Falling vacancies starting to lift unemployment While the labour market held up initially as job vacancies started to fall, fewer job openings are now pushing up the unemployment rate in earnest and we expect it to rise from 4% now to 5% by 2026. 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (May 2024) The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the... 26th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – Where next for equities, bonds and FX? 1720533600 Will hype around AI continue to fuel a US stock market rally? How are elections and monetary policy shaping the path for bond yields?
Canada Economic Outlook Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in... 26th June 2024 · 14 mins read
