US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jun. 2024) As the first economic data release under a Labour government since 2010, the decline in Halifax house prices in June meant that Labour’s tenure got off to a slightly downbeat start. However, while we... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour wins election: Some upside to GDP, inflation and rates The big shift in the political landscape that has delivered the first Labour government since May 2010 is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at the margin... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit set to keep narrowing Our analysis suggests that Japan's budget deficit is narrowing much more quickly than most were anticipating. That underpins our view that the ratio of public debt to GDP should return to pre-virus... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The shape of Labour's housing policy The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2024) The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
