RBA Watch RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a... 11th June 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024) The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) As the economy is set for a sustained period of below potential growth and core inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the end of the year, the Bank of Canada’s June interest rate cut... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook 1718013600 The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F
Japan Economics Update Why are US import prices from Japan rising? Rising car prices explain why US import prices from Japan haven’t fallen despite the sharp weakening of the yen. While growth in car prices has slowed as supply shortages have unwound, this hasn’t... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth may still be a concern for the Bank The Bank of Canada kicked off its loosened cycle this week and the accompanying communications left the door open for another cut in July, although still-strong wage pressures are one reason why the... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data not yet a cause for concern We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2024) The further rise in the unemployment rate in May shows that the labour market continues to loosen, but the surprising pick-up in wage growth still provides reason to be cautious about the idea that... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (May) The bigger-than-expected 272,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May will soothe recent fears that the bottom had suddenly dropped out of the economy. With average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% m/m... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle will go into reverse next year The jump in wage growth in April provides tentative evidence that the strong pay results agreed in this year's spring wage negotiations are starting to filter through and we expect regular earnings... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly National accounts on balance dovish The upward revisions to consumption mean that household spending has more momentum than previously thought and raise the risk that households will spend most of the income tax cuts due on 1 st July... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Why are shipping costs surging again? Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr. 2024) The April trade data suggest that net trade is on track to weigh on GDP growth again this quarter, but that is primarily due to continued strength in imports, which paints a better picture of domestic... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
