US Housing Market Update Another challenging year for first-time buyers The recent fall in the homeownership rate revealed by the Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) is unlikely to reverse given still-high mortgage costs. The survey also provided more evidence in support of our... 8th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Strong payrolls unlikely to reignite wage growth The strength of payroll employment growth over the past two months is likely to be a blip rather than the start of a renewed acceleration and the wider evidence still points to a further slowdown in... 8th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 8th February 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers should be feeling a little brighter in 2024 The upcoming GDP data are likely to confirm that Japanese consumers had a dismal 2023, with spending falling for most of the year. Healthy increases in nominal wages and lower inflation should put... 8th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Has a new productivity boom begun? The resurgence in productivity growth is mainly a cyclical response to the tightness of the labour market rather than a sign that the AI revolution is already bearing fruit. Nevertheless, that still... 7th February 2024 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jan. 2024) The average mortgage rate in January was unchanged from the month before, but that didn’t prevent mortgage applications for home purchase rising for a third consecutive month. And with interest rates... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The seventh consecutive monthly fall in German industrial output in December confirms that industry remains a significant drag on growth. We expect this to continue throughout 2024. 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2023) Although the unemployment rate last quarter came in below the RBNZ’s expectations, leading indicators continue to point to a rapid loosening of labour market conditions this year. Accordingly, we... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: January CPI and the timing of the start of Fed easing 1707836400 What does the recent data flow and Jerome Powell’s pushback mean for the timing of the first Fed rate cut? How quickly and easily will core inflation get back to target?
Capital Daily Another mini banking crisis looks unlikely Although last week’s renewed underperformance of US regional banks and equity office REITs sparked fears of another mini banking crisis, a fairly steady decline in the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data... 6th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in both the housing and commercial readings. (See Chart 1.) While we doubt commercial... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
