Event UK Drop-In: How the Bank of England will respond to UK inflation’s rapid retreat 9th May 2024, 3:00PM BST Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of England to cut rates more...
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other developed markets (DM) central banks will be able to ease... 29th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, the Fed, and the dollar Most of the major policy initiatives being suggested by Donald Trump’s campaign would be inflationary; whether it’s narrowing the trade deficit via tariffs or a dollar devaluation, curbing immigration... 29th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Why is productivity so weak outside the US? Productivity growth in most advanced economies has been much weaker than that in the US since the pandemic. This partly reflects the relative weakness of demand, coupled with a degree of labour... 29th April 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets overdo higher for longer narrative While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK... 29th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey & Germany State CPI (April 2024) The weaker-than-expected EC business and consumer survey for Ap ril is a reminder that the euro-zone economy is still weak. Meanwhile, the survey and inflation figures for Germany and Spain confirm... 29th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Case for FX intervention less compelling than in 2022 The Ministry of Finance may have intervened earlier today by selling FX reserves to halt the sharp fall of the yen. However, the economic case for foreign exchange intervention is much weaker now than... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Higher yields no insurmountable obstacle for the NASDAQ The NASDAQ 100 has shrugged off this week’s surge in real US Treasury yields amid a mixed bag of earnings reports from some of the ‘Magnificent 7’. (See Chart 1.) This suggests to us that the earlier... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Have soft landing hopes been dashed? The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.6% annualised, from 3.4%, was more marked than expected, but it was principally due to a bigger drag from the net exports and inventories categories. With... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data favour the doves The latest Summary of Deliberations showed division among the Governing Council about when it will be appropriate to cut interest rates. The data released since the April meeting favour the doves... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery in activity won’t stop ECB rate cuts Survey data released this week suggest that the euro-zone is coming out of recession. But with activity still very weak and wage growth appearing to have eased so far this year, we remain comfortable... 26th April 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Bumpy ride back to target Progress in getting back to central bank targets has slowed in several major economies. In advanced economies, a rebound in energy inflation has offset most of the drag on headline rates from lower... 26th April 2024 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Mar.) The slightly bigger-than-expected 3.7% annualised first-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator was principally because January’s gain was revised up to 0.50% from 0.45%. Nevertheless, the 0.32%... 26th April 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stock market rally only a small support for consumers Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect the stock market AI bubble to reinflate We think the recent recovery in the share prices of some of the ‘Magnificent 7’ is a sign that the earlier pull-back in their collective performance wasn’t a harbinger of a far bigger correction in... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
