UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Jan. 2024) The larger than expected +0.7% m/m gain in house prices in January (consensus: +0.1%, Capital Economics: +0.4%) reflected improving public sentiment about the economy and the housing market and... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec. 23) 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest disinflation will continue The December JOLTS data show a continued painless normalisation in the labour market – with job openings on a downward trend, layoffs unusually low and wage growth set for a sharp slowdown. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov. 2023) The marked slowdown in house prices in November was the first sign of a response in prices to the spike in mortgage rates a month earlier. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2023) 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023) December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Regulatory changes won’t affect house price outlook The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched a consultation on changes to its macroprudential framework last week. In our view, the proposed tweaks are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the housing... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. 29th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2023) The worsening in total returns to -3.0% q/q in Q4 was consistent with our expectations of bigger-than-average year-end markdowns. But the major takeaway was that the data and NCREIF’s release notes... 29th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Geopolitics, shipping disruptions and supply chain risks 1707318000 Do maritime disruptions threaten a repeat of pandemic-era supply shocks? Should investors brace for an inflationary resurgence?
US Economics Focus Inflation: Mission accomplished? We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a... 29th January 2024 · 20 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
