US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jan. 2024) Housing starts fell by the largest amount since April 2020 in January, led by a huge drop in multi-family starts. We suspect the multi-family sector will continue to be a drag on new development this... 16th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Soft landing intact as mild recession nearing an end It’s debatable whether the small falls in GDP should be considered a recession, although the decline in GDP per capita has been larger. Either way, timely indicators suggest the economy may be coming... 16th February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2024) The 3.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in January will put an end to the retail recession and perhaps even to the wider economy recession in Q1. The strong pick up in sales suggests the worst is... 16th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening plans While Japan's GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter, other data overwhelmingly point to the economy holding up rather than falling into recession. And while the third consecutive fall in... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices still the most likely source of distress While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 15th February 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Nearing the trough in house prices Although house prices continued to fall in January, lower mortgage rates are beginning to support affordability and stimulate home sales. With the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to positive... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflation will fall into target band this year Non-labour input costs are now moderating which should soon result in a more rapid slowdown in consumer price inflation than most are anticipating. 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2023) The news that the UK slipped into technical recession in 2023, will be a blow for the Prime Minister on a day when he faces the prospect of losing two by-elections. But this recession is as mild as... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2024) 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
