Japan Economics Weekly Is the plunge in imports the canary in the coalmine? Given that GDP has already contracted for two consecutive quarters, the plunge in imports in January and the fall in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since 2020 in February hardly instill... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Survey data point to resilience in economic activity Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: UK commercial property’s muted recovery 1709114400 All-property total returns will turn positive in 2024 but we don’t think the recovery will be much to write home about.
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in December means that retail sales volumes rose by close to 5% annualised last quarter, supporting the preliminary estimate that GDP growth turned positive again. With sales volumes... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices 1710408600 Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ has succeeded in creating high-pressure economy The Bank of Japan has succeeded in creating tight labour market conditions through ultra-loose monetary policy and is now reaping the benefits in the form of stronger wage growth. The upshot is that... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Economic Outlook – What to expect from global growth to 2050 1709218800 An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces.
Global Economics Update Can we still rely on the PMIs? The S&P Global PMI surveys have not been fully reliable guides to activity in major advanced economies over the past few years. But their relationship with GDP outside the US is still fairly strong... 21st February 2024 · 6 mins read
