Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit set to keep narrowing Our analysis suggests that Japan's budget deficit is narrowing much more quickly than most were anticipating. That underpins our view that the ratio of public debt to GDP should return to pre-virus... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The shape of Labour's housing policy The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2024) The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2024) The upside surprise in the May retail sales numbers primarily reflected consumers taking advantage of end-of-financial year sales events. As a result, we doubt the data will allay the RBA’s concerns... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recovery in residential investment to lose steam The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to softer wage growth Despite the modest rise in job openings in May, the big picture remains that labour market conditions continue to slowly normalise, and the low quits rate still points to a sharp slowdown in wage... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted... 2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read
