Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Case for tighter macroprudential measures is weak While Australian households are as indebted as ever and mortgage payments have hit fresh record-highs, lending standards continue to be sound, loan defaults remain subdued and banks are well... 23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we see more distress coming in 2024 We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those... 22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024) If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could disinflation go too far? We argued last week that there was little to support the idea that the “last mile” of getting inflation back to 2% will somehow be the hardest. But new data on rent inflation released this week raise... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2023) A drop in existing home sales in December confirmed that they fell by 20% y/y in 2023 as a whole to their lowest level since 1995. (See Chart 1.) Lack of supply was the main reason existing home sales... 19th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New year, no cheer There was little for the Bank of Canada to be encouraged by this week, with evidence of a further deterioration in the economy yet little sign of a fall in inflation expectations or downward pressure... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the soft landing in jeopardy? This week’s stronger-than-expected news on inflation and weaker-than expected news on activity doesn’t mean that a soft landing for the economy is no longer the most likely outcome. Instead, there’s... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2023) The 3.2% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was far worse than expected (consensus forecast -0.5% m/m, CE -1.0% m/m) and suggests that the Black Friday boost to retail sales proved short... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Homebuilding slump isn’t as bad as it seems With new dwelling commencements falling to a 11-year low, some commentators have raised concerns that a lack of housing supply will fuel a resurgence in inflationary pressures. However, we're not... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will normalise rather than tighten policy While headline inflation will jump in February due to base effects from the launch of energy subsidies, underlying inflation will continue to moderate, with services inflation set to fall below 2%... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
