US Economics Update Mind the Gap: Markets should focus on PCE not CPI The strong reaction to the January CPI data demonstrates that markets still don’t fully comprehend that the Fed is focused on the alternative PCE measure of inflation. While core CPI inflation was... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not mimic yesterday’s... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus What does the election mean for the UK economy? The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the elections in 2017 and 2019. Moreover, whoever wins will be constrained by interest rates having risen relative to... 13th February 2024 · 31 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2023) While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as we expect. 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Read my lips: No new tax cuts Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (January) There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market strength buys the Bank more time The strength of the labour market in January is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada can wait a little longer before it starts to cut interest rates. We now forecast the first interest rate... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bond vigilantes fiddle, as budget burns New projections released by the CBO this week show that although the Federal budget deficit is expected to be a bit smaller than previously assumed, it remains on an unsustainable path. Moreover, with... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bad news coming, but better times ahead We’d recommend ignoring any reports on the back of next week’s data releases that the UK economy is heading in the wrong direction on inflation and activity. It may only be a few months before... 9th February 2024 · 11 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices - Annual Revision to Seasonal Factors 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan.) Although the sharp rise in employment in January may paint a healthier picture of the labour market than what is under the surface, the Bank of Canada will still be concerned about the renewed decline... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Next move is still down for Antipodean central banks Although the RBA refused to rule out additional interest rate increases at its meeting this week, we suspect a cooling economy will obviate the need for further policy tightening. That said, in... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Dec. 23) 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
