Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 24) 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions normalising The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey suggests that banks have put last year’s SVB regional bank crisis firmly behind them and, with long-term interest rates markedly lower than the... 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at... 5th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing Given the rise in rents and the recent decline in mortgage rates, the financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing. This will boost buyer demand and cause tenant demand to soften this year. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell preaches caution amid jobs bonanza Based on the steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through this week’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Productivity may finally be improving The upside surprise to fourth-quarter GDP should, somewhat counterintuitively, make the Bank of Canada more confident that inflation is heading back to 2% because it implies that productivity has... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal splurge won’t prevent summer interest rate cut The IMF was not wrong when it pointed out this week that by offering pre-election tax cuts, the Chancellor is turning a blind eye to the precarious state of the fiscal position. To meet his fiscal... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 353,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates why the Fed is apparently in no rush to start cutting interest rates and kills off any remaining chance of a cut as soon as March. Even if... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the latest batch of big tech earnings We expect big tech to drive the S&P 500 higher still in 2024, despite a mixed performance from the shares of most of the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ over the last ten days in the wake of a flurry of... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly End-year bonuses will signal strength of wage pressure The upcoming wage and bonus data for the end of 2023 will provide a check on the temperature of Japan’s labour market. They will show that earnings are still being outstripped by inflation. But what... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lengthening delivery times not too concerning The big picture from January’s manufacturing PMIs was the growing outperformance of industry in major EMs compared to their advanced economy peers. The surveys also highlighted that Red Sea... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily It’s about the end, not the start Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
