US Economics

US Economics Weekly

14 December, 2018

Shutdown will be biggest downside risk in 2019

As the fiscal stimulus fades and the lagged impact of monetary tightening intensifies, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and only 1.2% in 2020. Markets apparently believe the biggest downside risk is that the US-China trade dispute worsens. With both sides apparently intent on making a deal, however, that could even turn out to be a minor positive in 2019. To our minds, the biggest downside risk is a prolonged Federal government shutdown that morphs into a full-blow

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