The House GOP tax bill released earlier today suggests that Republicans are edging towards their goal of passing tax reform this year. The proposals would add $1.5trn to the deficit over ten years, as already agreed to in the Budget resolution. The bill will inevitably be amended further over the coming weeks, particularly when it goes to the Senate. Nevertheless, on balance, we still think a similar-sized package of tax cuts will be passed by early next year, giving economic growth a one-off boost in 2018.
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