Fuelled by the fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth to be 2.9% this year but, as the stimulus fades and higher interest rates become a bigger drag on the economy, growth should slow to 2.0% in 2019 and only 1.3% in 2020. In that scenario, we expect the fed funds rate to peak at just below 3% in mid-2019, with the Fed being forced to cut interest rates again in 2020.
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