US Weekly: Fiscal package moves to the Senate

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House has raised some concerns about the fiscal outlook. However, we expect the rise in tariff revenue to almost exactly offset the House bill's extra costs, keeping the deficit close to 6% of GDP.  As a result, this doesn’t appear to be the start of a fiscal crisis, despite the decision by Moody’s late last week to downgrade US government debt by a notch. Otherwise, there were signs that tariff-driven inflation may soon appear in the data, with retailers like Nike and Walmart planning to increases prices, and the S&P PMIs showing a rise in input and output prices in May.