US Commercial Property
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Will a flood of new apartments boost vacancies?

The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the risk of a spike in the vacancy rate. However, construction delays will push back the completion date of some of those units. And the record low number of homes for sale, combined with pent-up demand from the spring, will boost absorption later this year and prevent the vacancy rate from rising beyond 5.5%.
Matthew Pointon Senior Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Focus

How pandemic changes will affect US metros

Americans are returning to cities, but the return to the office has been much slower. We see suburban areas being net winners in the residential and retail sectors, although the picture for downtown versus suburban offices is less obvious than the national data currently suggest. What is clear is that the winning metros will tend to be cheaper, and in mostly southern states. These will attract newly footloose workers, which will directly support the residential markets in those metros and will also have a positive effect on demand for office, retail, leisure and industrial space. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this US Commercial Property Focus to clients of our US Housing service

22 October 2021

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Downtown offices not losing out everywhere

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18 October 2021

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Commercial Property Lending (Sep.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fourth consecutive month in September, thanks to net lending turning a corner in the residential sector and accelerating in the commercial sector.

15 October 2021

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House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble

House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening credit conditions on the back of higher house prices, and that argues against a repeat of a mid-2000s credit cycle. Rather, rising mortgage interest rates, a stabilisation in down payments and stretched affordability mean that house price gains will slow over the second half of the year.

1 June 2021

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Will expensive home sales keep booming?

Sales of expensive homes have done particularly well over the past year, with the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 surging from 15% a year ago to a record high 26% in April. An extreme shortage of cheaper homes for sale, coupled with a jump in purchasing power thanks to larger down payments and lower mortgage rates, helps explain that shift. Inventory shortages will continue to drive buyers toward expensive homes, but purchasing power is set to ease. Overall, we expect the share of new and existing homes sold for more than $500,000 to edge back to around 20% to 22% over the next couple of years.

26 May 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.)

House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home sales dropped 5.9% m/m in April, and a steady decline in mortgage applications for home purchase points to a further moderation in sales over the next couple of months. That will help take some of the heat out of the market and bring house price growth back down to earth by the end of the year.

25 May 2021
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