Mortgage rates are set to exceed 3% by the end of our forecast. With house prices very high, that will keep house price inflation below 2% out to 2020. This means that the house price to income ratio will see a small improvement over that time. But that won’t be enough to support more than a gentle rise in transactions. Meanwhile, our outlook for London is more downbeat, with an 8% fall in prices forecast by the end of 2019.