With even overseas central banks citing the EU referendum as a reason not to raise rates this month, the chances of anything from the Bank of England are nil. If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we don’t think that it will be too long before the MPC hikes rates. If the UK votes to leave, the MPC will have to balance inflationary pressure from a fall in sterling against a weaker economic outlook – with perhaps the most likely outcome that rates stay at current levels for a long time.
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